The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rallied back above the 1.62 level on Thursday after the UK currency found support after a poll suggested that the Pro-UK campaign was gaining the advantage in the run up to the Scottish Referendum.
Sterling rallied against the US Dollar, Euro and most other major peers after the poll, conducted by Survation and published in a Scottish newspaper showed that 47% of Scots intend to vote yes to independence whilst 53% are planning to vote against.
Also lending support to the Pound were announcements made by a number of leading businesses and banks that in the event of a yes victory they would move their operations to England. The comments were seen as a positive as economists expect that most voters will not want to see such a thing occur.
The US Dollar meanwhile was softened slightly following the publication of the latest US Jobless Claims Data.
According to the report released by the Washington, based Labour Department, the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits increased unexpectedly to a two-month high. The unexpected rise interrupts a steady decline that was on track to reach the lowest level since 2009.
The data showed that the number of claimants increased by 11,000 in the week ending September 6, bringing the total number of claimants up to 315,000. The figure was worse than the 300,000 forecast by economists.
The unexpected rise in jobless benefit claimants did soften the US Dollar but it was not enough to send the currency broadly lower. The ‘Greenback’ is continuing to find support from increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than initially expected as economic data continues to come in widely positively.
A separate report showed that demand for motor vehicles climbed in August at the fastest pace since January 2006.
‘With the most recent economic indicators showing that the recovery was even stronger in the second quarter than anyone expected and with consumer confidence now at a seven-year high. Monthly jobless claims at near record low levels, there’s every reason to believe the auto industry can maintain these levels in the months ahead,’ said the sales chief from Toyota Motor Corps.
Pound Sterling to US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
The GBP/USD exchange rate is forecast to remain volatile until the September 18 Scottish referendum vote. If new polls show a lead for the Yes campaign, we can expect the Pound to weaken sharply. If the reverse occurs then Sterling could recover more ground against the US Dollar and other major peers.
US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates
[table width=”100%” colwidth=”50|50|50|50|50″ colalign=”left|left|left|left|left”]
Currency, ,Currency,Rate ,
US Dollar,
,Pound Sterling,0.6161 ,
US Dollar,,Euro,0.7727 ,
US Dollar,,Canadian Dollar,1.1016 ,
US Dollar,,Australian Dollar,1.0976 ,
Pound Sterling,,US Dollar,1.6230 ,
Euro,,US Dollar,1.2942 ,
[/table]
