The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates could all fluctuate next week on account of data and central bank movements with several events worth noting.
Monday will be a soft start to the week with only Rightmove House Prices out for the UK, German Producer Prices and Eurozone Construction Output released from the currency bloc, as well as the US Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index for the States.
ZEW German and Eurozone Economic Sentiment Surveys Forecast to Impact Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate
Things will get a little more interesting for the Euro on Tuesday when the German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys are published, as well as the German Current Situation Survey. The mildly influential Canadian Wholesales Sales stat will also be out on Tuesday.
Wednesday will add a little more spice for the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates with the Bank of England (BoE) scheduled to release its April meeting minutes.
BoE Policy Divergence Forecast to See the Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Rally
If April saw policymakers at odds over whether or not to increase borrowing costs, the GBP/EUR, GBP/CAD, GBP/USD currency pairs could rally.
Meanwhile, if the write-up is dovish, the British currency is likely to remain relatively unchanged, or perhaps soften.
However, there might be some more influence on the Pound from North America with Canadian finance minister Joe Oliver due to present the latest budget. Such an event could see significant ‘Loonie’ exchange rate movement and if the budget gains a favourable reception the Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD), Canadian Dollar to Euro (CAD/EUR) and Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rates could rally.
There’ll be a little US and Eurozone data out on Wednesday too; US Existing Home Sales and MBA Mortgage Applications could encourage the US Dollar higher if favourable, while the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence ecostat could offer moderate movement for the Euro exchange rate.
Thursday will be more exciting for the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), Euro to Canadian Dollar (EWUR/CAD) and Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rates with the release of Markit’s Eurozone and German Manufacturing, Composite and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI).
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing and Retail Sales figures will also be out and could cause some interesting swings in Pound Sterling trading. US New Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers are also due for release.
The close of the week will be quiet for both the Canadian and UK economies with the majority of the day dominated by US data.
The US Durable Goods Orders figure is expected to warrant major US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) and US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate movement. Additionally, the German IFO Business Climate, Current Assessment and Expectations indexes will be out on Friday and could prop up the Euro if favourable.
On Friday, the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate was trending lower, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates climbed higher.
Another factor that could influence GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/CAD exchange rates will be ongoing negotiations between Greece and its creditors. There’s mounting speculation that Greece will need to make a deal this week in order to prevent itself running out of funds, missing International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt repayments and being expelled from the Eurozone.
The price of oil is also likely to impact CAD/EUR, CAD/GBP and CAD/USD trading as such a volatile commodity; any developments in crude production levels could weigh on the ‘Loonie’ exchange rate significantly.
