Any positive sentiment towards Sterling is close to non-existence after the latest YouGov poll on Scottish independence has seen a surprising new leader in the form of pro-separation. The Canadian Dollar has also been given a healthy kick by a better-than-forecast Building Permits publication.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.7582.
In general the Pound has steadily weakened over the past few weeks with anxieties over the Scottish bid for independence heightening as we get ever closer to a decision. The latter half of last week saw Sterling take a battering when a YouGov poll on the Scottish referendum showed that the lead for those in favour of maintaining the 307-year-old union had dwindled to just 6%, having been at 22% less than a month previously.
For the majority of last week the Canadian Dollar trended reasonably highly against many of its major peers having hung on to the tailcoat of a bullish US Dollar. Friday saw the ‘Loonie’ (CAD) weaken a little, however, after a mixed-bag of domestic data results halted progress.
The Canadian Unemployment Rate stayed in line with the forecast figure of 7%, but Net Change in Employment saw a massive decline from the previous figure of 41,700. Analysts expected a decline to 10,000 which is already a significant gap from the previous figure, but the actual data was a shocking -11,000. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index also failed to impress having been forecast to rise from 54.1 to 55.3; the actual result was an unwanted declination to 50.9.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rate has hit a low today of 1.7533.
Monday morning saw the Pound to ‘Loonie’ exchange rate slump to its lowest level since January after a fresh YouGov poll showed an advantage to those in favour of an independent Scotland. The poll indicated that the nationalists had gained a lead for the first time by 51% against the unionists. Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, commented; ‘These polls can and must now serve as a wake-up call to anyone who thought the referendum result was a foregone conclusion. It never was. It will go down to the wire. Now is the time to speak up and speak out’.
Since the publication of the YouGov poll traders have been quick to pull away from the Pound, and it is seemingly unlikely that there will be any positive movement until the Scottish bid for Independence has concluded on September 18th. However there are some independent polls which tell a different story. A poll carried out by Panelbase, for example, has the nationalists leading by 52%.
British economic data hasn’t helped matters for Sterling on Monday. The Monthly Halifax House Prices were forecast at 0.3% growth but only managed 0.1%.
The Canadian Dollar has been bolstered on Monday from a better-than-forecast economic data publication. Monthly Building Permits was forecast to contract by -8.5%; a massive drop from the previous percentage at 16.4%. The actual data, however, showed a positive growth of 11.8%; completely eclipsing the forecast figure.
UPDATE
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.7705.
The pressure is mounting on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and hike their benchmark interest rate, and demand for the US Dollar has increased significantly as a result. The Canadian Dollar has suffered from the surging US Dollar and the fall of global oil prices.
Meanwhile Tuesday has seen a mixed-bag of UK economic data results. Both Industrial and Manufacturing production printed positively, but Total Trade balance showed an unhealthy decline at -3.348 billion.
