Today’s the day that Scotland chooses whether to remain a part of the 300-year old United Kingdom or strike out on their own. One option will offer security for the country whilst the other will create an uncertain future, but one controlled by the Scots. The run up to the vote has seen leaders from both sides of the debate plead their case and emotions are running high.
With the opinion polls showing that the outcome of the election will be anything but certain the currency markets are jittery.
As well as the Scottish referendum vote, the Pound received support from the release of Retail Sales data.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales volumes increased by 0.4% on a month on month basis. Year on year sales increased just under expectations by coming in at 3.9%, just below the 4.1% rise forecast.
As the day progresses the Pound is forecast to experience volatility.
We will be updating this blog throughout the day to keep you informed of the latest news regarding the vote and its impact upon the Pound.
Updates:
17:00 pm – That’s it for today’s coverage but join us again on Friday for the aftermath of the referendum result. Its going to be a very interesting day.
16:40 pm – GBP/EUR trading in the region of 1.267, GBP/USD trading in the region of 1.636, GBP/AUD trading in the region of 1.822, GBP/NZD trading in the region of 2.010, GBP/CAD trading in the region of 1.791
15:35 pm –
British pound gaining on #EUR & #USD; gonna be watching #ScotlandDecides all day http://t.co/kFJs5ELSvS #fx #GBPUSD
— Joanna Ossinger (@ossingerj) September 18, 2014
15:10pm – The Pound advanced to its best level in two years against the Euro and has reached its best level in two months against the US Dollar. Seems as thought he markets are confident of a win for the Better Together campaign.
14:00pm – GBP/EUR exchange rate has surged above the 1.27 level as confidence builds that the No campaign will emerge the victor. Against the US Dollar the Pound pushed to 1.638 and made solid gains right across the board.
12:00 pm – Pound finds more support against the Euro, US Dollar and other peers following the release of the latest poll.
Our last poll on #indyref No at 53% and Yes at 47%. 95% say they will vote to day for @standardnews — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) September 18, 2014
11:20 am – Prime Minister David Cameron has said that he will not stand down in the event of a Yes victory. He told reporters; ‘My name is not on the ballot paper. What’s on the ballot paper is, does Scotland want to stay in the United Kingdom or does Scotland want to separate itself from the United Kingdom, That’s the only question that will be decided on Thursday night. The question about my future will come at the British general election coming soon.’ Whatever the outcome of the vote, British politics looks set to be changed forever. MP’s in England are calling for the creation of an English Parliament and independence calls are likely to rise in Wales and other regions. 11:00 am – The Pound advanced against the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) as the release of retail sales data earlier in the session offered support. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales rose 0.4% last month, in line with expectations. July’s figure was revised to a flat reading from a previously estimated 0.1% gain. Year-on-year, retail sales rose at a 3.9% rate in August, below expectations for a 4.1% gain, after rising at a rate of 2.5% in July. 10:50 am –
Fantastic speech from @OfficeGSBrown on #ScotlandDecides. Worth watching before you go out to vote today: https://t.co/axX9zfehbA — Richard Corbett (@RCorbettMEP) September 18, 2014
10:40 am – Interesting post from Reuters. Concerns are high that tensions could spill over as the campaign has become highly charged.
In #Scotland ‘s capital, “Better Together” have become fighting words: http://t.co/492vXsRafX #ScotlandDecides pic.twitter.com/tjmRDLIFPB — Reuters Opinion (@ReutersOpinion) September 18, 2014
10: 25 am – 4,285,323 people are registered to vote. That is 97% of the Scottish electorate. Monitors are expecting a historically high turnout. The question being asked on the polling cards is simple, “Should Scotland be an independent country?” The Pound meanwhile is experiencing mixed movement but so far is not experiencing any sharp gains or losses.It is lower against the Norwegian Krone (NOK), Hungarian Forint (HUF) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). 10:05 am – Betting company William Hill is still receiving bets for a Yes win, this is going to be close.
Biggest bet so far today – £2000 for Yes- currently 7/2 YES; 1/5 NO. #ScotlandDecides — William Hill (@sharpeangle) September 18, 2014
10:00am: The polls are open until 10pm GMT with the count starting straight after the close. The result of the vote is not expected to know until 5am on Friday morning when the three major Scottish cities of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh reveal their results.
09:45 am: With the voting well underway, the Pound (GBP) has already begun to experience some movement. Against the Euro (EUR), it is holding ground in the region of 1.26, against the US Dollar (USD) the Pound was holding onto gains achieved overnight after the US Federal Reserve said that it would raise interest rates until next year. The comments disappointed economists who had been hoping for a hawkish statement.
