Indian Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Depend on US News
At the close of the week the Indian Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) exchange rate posted its biggest decline for seven days, extending its bearish run as US retail sales data surpassed expectations and pushed the ‘Greenback’ higher.
The 0.3% increase in sales in October wiped out the previous month’s decline and added to the case for an earlier-than-forecast interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve.
The Rupee’s movement saw forex trader Uday Bhatt observe; ‘There was some defence-related buying and compared to other Asian currencies, the Rupee has still not weakened as such, so some catching up there. In the absence of any major data domestically, the Rupee will hold in a 61.50 to 62.00 range early next week.’
Industry expert Kiran Kumar Kavikondala also noted; ‘Rupee depreciated sharply in last hour of the trade marching towards 62 after breaking 61.75. USD index also inched higher suggesting strength in USD against major world currencies. Most Asian currencies remained weak against USD.’
Next week Indian data is in short supply so fluctuations in the Indian Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) exchange rate are likely to occur in repose to US ecostats and global economic developments.
Signs of strength in the US economy would see investors bring forward their projections for interest rate increases and could have an adverse impact on emerging-market currencies like the Rupee.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting minutes have the potential to significantly influence currency market movement next week.
The USD/INR exchange rate hit a low of 61.7950
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Hold Decline
With the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report causing investors to push back their UK rate hike projections to towards the end of next year, the Pound posted extensive declines against the majority of its peers.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate plunged to a three-week low and continued trending about that level after the GDP reports for two of the Eurozone’s largest economies came in mildly above expected levels.
While there are several high profile UK reports scheduled for publication this week, investors will be paying particular attention to the publication of the Bank of England meeting minutes. If the minutes show that the Monetary Policy Committee is split on the subject of interest rate increases, the Pound could recoup some of its losses.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate was little-changed even after the UK’s Prime Minister asserted that the Eurozone is on the precipice of another recession.
Demand for the Pound was undermined early on Monday morning after a Bank of England official intimated that inflation may remain low for some time.
The GBP/EUR exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.2574
However, on Monday the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate fell below 1.25. The currency pair is forecast to continue trending lower ahead of the publication of the UK’s Consumer Price Index tomorrow. Soft inflation will pile further pressure on Sterling and could see the GBP/EUR exchange rate touch fresh lows as the week continues.
Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Higher Despite ECB Concerns
Although industry experts are still calling for the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more extreme policy measures to support growth in the currency bloc, the Euro managed to trounce the Pound over the course of the week.
The EUR/GBP exchange rate advanced to its highest level in several weeks and brushed a high of 0.7956 on Friday.
Next week the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate could fluctuate in response to the Eurozone’s trade balanced data, German and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment surveys, Eurozone construction output figures, and Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI.
Given that growth in the Eurozone and its two largest economies (France and Germany) surprised to the upside in the third quarter, economists will be hoping that that momentum continued into the final quarter of the year. These latest PMI stats will provide a good indication of whether that is the case.
The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7952
On Monday the Euro was supported against its peers as the Eurozone’s trade surplus was shown to have widened by considerably more than anticipated in September.
US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast: FOMC Minutes in Focus
The US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate jumped by more than 0.5% on Friday as investors flocked to the ‘Greenback’ following the publication of impressive US Advance Retail Sales data.
The stronger-than-expected sales gain helped the US Dollar advance on all of its currency counterparts.
The safe-haven asset’s supremacy was cemented when the University of Michigan Confidence Index was shown to have surged in November. The measure of sentiment leapt from 86.9 in October to 89.4 in November.
Next week the USD/GBP exchange rate could experience volatility as a result of the publication of minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Bank of England’s meeting minutes will also be of interest.
The US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate was trading in the region of 0.6403
