Indian Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Rupee Trends Higher
Over the course of local trading, the Indian Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) exchange rate advanced by the most for three weeks.
The news that the US added fewer positions than forecast in October gave emerging market and higher risk currencies like the Rupee a boost on Monday while undermining demand for the US Dollar.
A lack of influential US reports prevented the ‘Greenback’ from recouping Friday’s losses.
As the week progresses the Indian data most likely to cause movement in the Indian Rupee to US Dollar exchange rate includes the nation’s Industrial/Manufacturing Production and inflation rate stats, due out on Wednesday.
In the view of one locally-based forex trader; ‘Markets will watch out for the CPI data for immediate direction. Outlook for Rupee broadly remains positive but global dollar strength will have some effects on the Rupee.’
The USD/INR exchange rate hit a low of 61.3750
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Flounders after BoE Report
With influential data for the UK lacking at the start of the week, the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate weakened in response to the Eurozone’s moderately improved Sentix Investor Confidence index.
As the week progresses, volatility in the GBP/EUR pairing is likely to be triggered by the UK’s employment figures and the Bank of England’s inflation report.
While a good jobs gain would be Pound beneficial, demand for the British asset will be undermined if the nation’s wage growth figures fall short.
Additionally, the BoE may negatively revise both its growth and inflation projections for the UK in this report – an action which could push the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate below the 1.27 support level.
The GBP/EUR exchange rate hit a high of 1.2763 on Monday
On Tuesday the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate strengthened in response to the British Retail Consortium’s Like-for-Like sales report. The figure of 0.0% for October, year-on-year, was better than the decline of -0.5% expected by economists.
The Pound was holding steady against the majority of its currency counterparts on Wednesday despite the news that the Bank of England fired its chief currency dealer for not highlighting issues within his sector.
Given that the UK is set to release its employment figures in the hours ahead, considerable Pound Sterling exchange rate movement could still occur.
UPDATE
As the week progressed the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell below 1.27 while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell below 1.58.
The Pound softened across the board after the Bank of England published a particularly pessimistic inflation report.
Demand for the Pound was additionally undermined by a softening in RICS UK House Price Balance data.
Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate Declines as US Dollar Rebounds
The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate was able to advance on Monday as China’s trade data impressed and the nation’s inflation report came in at expected levels.
The AUD/USD pairing achieved a high of 0.8683 during the local session.
Although Australia’s Home Loans data fell short, last Friday’s disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls report, coupled with the Chinese stats, were enough to keep the Australian Dollar trending in a stronger position.
However, the recent drop in the price of crude oil and iron ore really knocked the ‘Aussie’ back and there are some industry experts who believe the South Pacific currency will struggle to return to trading at its previous levels.
According to National Australia Bank; ‘Our expectation that Australia’s terms of will find a base above its long-term average, and that a relatively shallow [US Federal Reserve] tightening cycle will be a restraining influence on the extent of ultimate US Dollar appreciation, means we do not think the Aussie will trade back to – or through – its historical post-float average of around US 76 cents.’
Overnight movement in the AUD/USD exchange rate could be caused by Australia’s ANZ Weekly Consumer Confidence gauge and NAB Business Conditions/Confidence measures.
Early into the Australasian session, the ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence index was shown to have increased modestly from 114.6 to 114.8 – lending the Australian Dollar a little support.
The Australian Dollar went on to lose ground against both the US Dollar and Pound despite some positive domestic reports.
Australia’s House Price Index advanced by 1.5% in the third quarter, up from 1.9% in second.
The nation’s NAB Business Conditions index jumped from 1 to 13, but the measure of Business Confidence fell from 5 to 4.
However, the Pound was supported by a better-than-forecast UK Like-for-Like sales report and the US Dollar rebounded from the lows recorded last week, leaving the Australian Dollar trailing its counterparts.
The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 0.8636.
