The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate has been trending lower after the Trans Tasman commodity currency was bolstered by favourable Chinese data. China’s exports beat the forecast 10.6% in October, instead rising by 11.6% on the year. Furthermore, the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell in line with predictions of a gain of 1.6% on an annual basis.
Sterling Depreciates versus Emerging-Market South African Rand (GBP/ZAR)
In addition; Sterling also recorded losses against the South African Rand (GBP/ZAR). The emerging-market currency has been consolidating last week’s losses against other majors after investor sentiment waned. As geopolitical tensions rose surrounding the Russia and Ukraine crisis, traders sought safe-haven assets or more robust currencies.
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney Speaks on New Global Policy
The Pound may feel the effects of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney speech in Basel, Switzerland on Monday. Carney unveiled a new plan to enforce a minimum requirement of capital to be held by banks that are deemed too large to fail.
The Governor wishes to impart the rules in order to prevent further taxpayer funds being used to bail out banks. Tens of billions were spent rescuing large financial institutions such as Lloyds, Northern Rock, Royal Bank of Scotland and Bradford and Bingley during the financial crisis.
Carney suggests global rules be imparted into banking institutions to allow banks a level of security. Carney stated: ‘Once implemented, these agreements will play important roles in enabling globally systematic banks to be resolved without recourse to public subsidy and without disruption to the wider financial system.’
UK Tax Payers No Longer Responsible for Bank Bail Outs
Instead of taxpayers propping up the banks, creditors that lend to the bank will have the balance of debt turned into bank shares which will support the institution.
Carney continued: ‘Agreement on proposals for a common international standard on total loss-absorbing capacity for [globally-systematic institutions] is a watershed in ending “too big to fail” banks.’
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) & Pound to South African Rand (GBP/ZAR) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate has seen a market movement of -0.55%, and is currently trading in the region of 2.0354. The Pound to South African Rand (GBP/ZAR) currency pair is trending within the boundaries of 17.8760 and 17.7710.
Pound Exchange Rate Suffers Under Political EU Referendum Debate
The Pound was offered little support as UK politics were debated heavily on Monday. Prime Minister David Cameron leapt to defend claims that the EU referendum in 2017 could damage the UK economy. The PM stated that even amid debate surrounding the referendum, the UK was able to secure a higher percentage of investment than the entirety of the EU. Cameron stated: ‘If there has been uncertainty, why is it that there has been such an extraordinary period of investment into our country? The worst thing for us to do as a country is to pretend that the European debate is not happening.’
New Zealand Data could Influence (NZD/GBP) Exchange Rate
The New Zealand Dollar to Pound (NZD/GBP) exchange rate could feel the impact of NZ Card Spending, Retail Card Spending, and Truckometer Heavy figures released before the close of the European session. Retail Card Spending is expected to increase by 0.5% in the month in October, a welcome figure from September’s -0.1% contraction.
Furthermore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Grant Bascand is expected to speak which could push the ‘Kiwi’ lower.
Meanwhile, the South African Rand could move significantly with the release of South African Manufacturing Production figures on Tuesday.
Pound Exchange Rate Trending Higher after Retail Sales Improvement
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate has advanced on Tuesday, as has the Pound to South African Rand (GBP/ZAR) currency pair. Sterling was offered support after the British Retail Consortium released its Like-For-Like Sales figures which equalised at 0.0% on the year in October. September’s report saw the annual figure slip to -2.1%, and economists’ had forecast an improvement to -0.5%.
The New Zealand Dollar also softened as the US Dollar (NZD/USD) rebounded after disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The South African Rand slid against the Pound ahead of Manufacturing Production figures which are expected to contract. On the month, September’s report is expected to show -1.34% contraction following August’s 2.2%. Meanwhile, economists’ have predicted the annual ecostat to improve from -1.2% to 0.9%.
New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rarte (NZD/GBP) Trending Higher on BoE Doubts
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate has advanced on Tuesday as investors anticipate the Bank of England’s Inflation Report due out on Wednesday. Many economists believe the central bank will take a dovish tone with inflation forecasts having the potential to soften.
If inflation figures do decline, the prospect of a UK interest rate hike in the near future may be postponed, which could see the Pound sink. Both the UK and the US are in close contention to be the first to raise borrowing costs within the Group of Seven (G7) developed nations–an event that is highly anticipated.
Any hawkish moves by the central bank would inspire a Sterling rally; however, with a UK slowdown taking place and falling commodity prices, it seems unlikely the Pound will gain dramatically in the near future as a result of the BoE.
New Zealand Dollar to Pound (NZD/GBP) Exchange Rate Anticipating Financial Stability Report
The ‘Kiwi’ has excelled against the Pound (NZD/GBP) ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report. Investors are keen to see if Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Graeme Wheeler, will alter the current restrictions on property in New Zealand. Any adjustments in property rules could lead to monetary policy changes which could significantly affect the ‘Kiwi’.
Any statements made by Wheeler could impact the ‘Kiwi’ exchange rate.
Forex expert Stuart Ive commented: ‘Whilst there’s no reason why Wheeler will deviate from the Financial Stability Report, he may mention something about the currency and if he does I don’t think it will be in a good light as obviously the RBNZ have clearly stated that they want the currency lower, they believe that it is overvalued. That could be an opportunity to do a bit of jawboning on the downside again.’
RBNZ says ‘Kiwi’ Dollar Overvalued, Mortgage Rules Remain in Place
The RBNZ stated on Tuesday that it wouldn’t be relieving tough mortgage rules for fear that the housing market could overheat. The central bank suggested that with an increasing immigration rate, lower borrowing costs could cause the housing market to be in jeopardy.
RBNZ Governor Grame Wheeler stated: ‘There remains a risk of resurgence in house-price inflation, particularly in light of strong immigration flows. We do not consider it appropriate to ease the lending limits at this time.’
Meanwhile, the Pound is trending lower ahead of the Bank of England Inflation Report which may see the Sterling exchange rate fluctuate.
Pound Tumbles on BoE Inflation Report
The Pound was offered little support on Wednesday when the Bank of England released its Inflation Report. The central bank suggested that due to a global slowdown, growth in the UK would be less than initially expected.
The report stated: ‘The global outlook has weakened since August. In the Euro area, the United Kingdom’s largest trading partner, output grew only modestly in the first half of 2014.’
The prospect of slower growth has disappointed economists and investors who were anticipating interest rate hikes in the UK in the first quarter of 2015.
BoE Governor Carney ‘Disappointed’ in Forex Chief Currency Rigging
BoE Governor Mark Carney also commented on the recent revelation of the central bank’s chief forex dealer being aware of illicit activity. Martin Mallett was dismissed. Mallett had worked for the central bank for 30 years and had been ‘uncomfortable’ with traders’ practices yet didn’t raise the alarm.
Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates
[table width=”100%” colwidth=”50|50|50|50|50″ colalign=”left|left|left|left|left”]
Currency, ,Currency,Rate ,
Euro,
,Pound , 0.7882,
US Dollar,,Pound , 0.6324,
Canadian Dollar,,Pound, 0.5599,
Australian Dollar,,Pound, 0.5522,
New Zealand Dollar,,Pound, 0.4987,
[/table]
