The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee exchange rate fell by over 0.8% during the local session as the Rupee found support in the aftermath of Friday’s disappointing US jobs data.
The fact that the US economy added fewer positions than forecast in August probably won’t influence the direction taken by the Fed regarding fiscal policy over the next few months, but the report was a disappointment.
That being said, analysts did note that the figure is ‘reviving bets that the Federal Reserve might leave interest rates near zero for longer than anticipated.’
The US added only 142,000 positions last month, over 50,000 less than anticipated. The participation rate also eased lower and wage growth disappointed expectations.
In the aftermath of the report’s publication assets like the Rupee were able to gain on the US Dollar.
The USD/INR exchange rate softened by 0.3% and held declines over the weekend.
While the Rupee was also slightly stronger against several of its other main currency-counterparts, its surge against the Pound was largely due to UK developments.
Sterling plummeted against almost all of its rivals on Monday as the latest YouGov survey showed that the Yes camp has taken the lead in the Scottish referendum battle, with 51% of participants voting in favour of Scotland leaving the UK.
With just ten days to go before the vote YouGov cites the following issues as factors which could see the separatists win; ‘Momentum. The change in mood of the past four weeks may prove infectious, with more voters being swayed by the excitement and optimism of a surge in Yes support and wanting to go with the flow. Superior campaigning. Yes Scotland is not only seen as more positive, it is also winning the ground war. Our poll finds that is has delivered more leaflets, put up more posters, set up more local stalls and sent more emails than Better Together. Women continuing to lose their fears of independence. The gender gap has narrowed, but not disappeared. If men don’t start to swing back to No, any further shift to Yes by Scotland’s women will guarantee victory for Salmond.’
It has been estimated that the Pound could depreciate in value by as much as 5% if Scotland left the UK.
The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee exchange rate hit a low of 100.3000.
The Pound to Euro exchange also fell considerably on Monday, shedding 1.25% and hitting a low of 1.2433.
Sterling also registered its biggest loss against the US Dollar for a year.
Meanwhile, the Euro managed to recover all the losses sustained against the Pound after the European Central Bank unleashed additional stimulus measures last Thursday.
The common currency derived some support this morning as data showed that Germany’s trade surplus was shown to have reached an all-time high as exports advanced by the most for over two years.
Between June and July Germany’s trade surplus widened from 17.2 billion Euros to 21.7 billion Euros, thanks to exports jumping by 4.7% and imports dropping by 1.8%.
In recent months Germany’s economic data has tended to come in below forecasts, so this spot of positive news was well received.
The German economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, contributing to the stagnation of the Eurozone’s own economy. Investors will be hoping that this encouraging trade data heralds the start of a better run of figures for Germany.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate held declines even as the Eurozone’s gauge of Sentix Investor Confidence disappointed forecasts.
The sentiment gauge fell from 2.7 in August to -9.8 in September. A reading of 1.4 had been forecast.
The GBP/EUR exchange rate hit a low of 1.2438.
Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee Exchange Rate Forecast
The week is fairly quiet in terms of economic reports for India, but Friday will see a flood of data releases, including industrial production, inflation rate, manufacturing production and trade balance figures.
Positive results could lend the Rupee support.
Before Friday any volatility in the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate is likely to be caused by UK news – including the nation’s own trade balance data, NIESR GDP estimate for August and construction output figures.
Additionally, any further indications that the Scottish referendum will end with Scotland leaving the UK will also put the Pound under pressure.
UPDATE
The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 97.4650.
The Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.2501.
A mixed-bag of British economic data on Tuesday morning hasn’t had a huge effect on Sterling movement as anxieties over the Scottish referendum dominate trader focus.
Yearly Manufacturing Production met with the forecast figure showing positive growth at 2.2%. Yearly Industrial Production eclipsed expectations of 1.3% growth printing at 1.7%. However, Total Trade Balance proved to be much worse than anticipated printing at -3.348 billion having been forecast at -2.459 billion.
With nothing by way of significant data for either the Euro or the Indian Rupee, it is likely that any changes will be governed by foreign currency movement.
Indian Rupee (INR) Exchange Rates
[table width=”100%” colwidth=”50|50|50|50|50″ colalign=”left|left|left|left|left”]
Currency, ,Currency,Rate ,
Pound Sterling,
,Indian Rupee, 97.1190,
US Dollar,,Indian Rupee,60.2400,
Euro,,Indian Rupee,78.0200,
Australian Dollar,,Indian Rupee,56.3580,
New Zealand Dollar,,Indian Rupee,50.0720,
[/table]
