Chance for GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Gains on UK GDP Growth
Pound Sterling (GBP) has risen by 0.5% against the Australian Dollar (AUD) today, thanks to a positive reception to Prime Minister Theresa May’s remarks.
This recent appreciation puts the GBP/AUD pairing at an over-two week high, trading at an interbank exchange rate of AU$1.8327.
Mrs May suggested that the long years of austerity could be coming to an end, while also keeping communication lines open with the EU for future Brexit talks.
Looking ahead, the GBP/AUD exchange rate could rise further on 10th October when August’s UK GDP growth rate data will come out.
This is tipped to show a faster pace of growth during the month, up from 0.3% to 0.4%.
Although a seemingly minor increase on paper, such a result could still raise GBP trader confidence and cause a noticeable Pound to Australian Dollar advance.
At a core level, continued GDP growth is a positive development for the UK as it suggests that national businesses are powering through any Brexit-linked uncertainty.
Will UK Wage Growth Data Risk Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Losses?
After next week’s UK GDP reading comes out, the Pound (GBP) could next be influenced by UK jobs market data out on 16th October.
This data will consist of average earnings stats for August, alongside unemployment rate figures for the same month.
Current expectations are for the pace of wage growth without bonuses to slow with a dip from 2.9% to 2.8%; the figure including bonuses is expected to stay at 2.6%.
A slower pace of wage growth risks the pace of inflation overtaking the pace of earnings growth, which will cause a wage squeeze for UK households.
The UK jobless rate isn’t expected to shift from 4%, but a wage growth slowdown could still cause GBP/AUD exchange rate losses.
Australian Dollar to Pound Outlook: Will Rising Construction Boost AUG/GBP Exchange Rate?
For Australian Dollar (AUD) traders, the next economic data to watch out for will be this evening’s AIG construction index reading for September.
The measurement is expected to show increased construction sector activity during the month, with an index rise from 51.8 points to 55.7.
For some recent history, levels of Australian construction activity fell in June, rose in July and dipped slightly in August.
If this evening’s data shows growth once again then the AUD/GBP exchange rate could rise, not least because this would put the reading near a 5-month high.
Future AUD/GBP Exchange Rate Forecast: Will the Australian Dollar Rise on Higher Business Confidence?
Beyond the upcoming Australian construction data, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could next be affected by 9th October’s NAB business confidence reading.
This is tipped to show growth from 4 points to 11 during the month, which would indicate a growing number of positive respondents.
NAB’s measurement of sentiment levels previously dropped from 7 points to 4 in August, so a forecast-matching rise could restore AUD trader confidence.
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