- GBP advances on recent positive polling outcome
- ‘Brexit’ concerns diminished slightly today owing to recorded outcome
- Canadian Dollar remains vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations
- Glut of UK ecostats due out tomorrow morning
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has been an unstable bet for investors today, with losses primarily coming from recent comments made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the results of a UK exit from the EU.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD), meanwhile, has been seesawed by the variable prices of nationally important resources.
UK Economic News: Day’s Referendum Stats Bolster GBP Appeal
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has made sizable gains against most of its peers today, thanks to the day’s developments relating to the UK Referendum. Gains for Sterling have included a slight increase against the Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD), 0.3% against the Euro (GBP/EUR), 0.8% against the Egyptian Pound (GBP/EGP) and the Hong Kong Dollar (GBP/HKD) and 0.9% against the US Dollar (GBP/USD). The most notable advance has been by 1.6% against the Omani Rial (GBP/OMR), while a notable loss of -1.3% against the Russian Ruble (GBP/RUB) has also been seen.
The Pound was initially trending in a tight range against most of its peers, but the gradual trickling out of ‘Brexit’ announcements and forecasts ultimately saw the Pound leap up against a majority of its peers.
Starting the day off was the constructed response of the ‘Out’ campaign to yesterday’s dovish Treasury report on what a ‘Brexit’ would do to the economy. Although ‘Leave’ Co-Chair Michael Gove started the ball rolling by declaring that the claims treated undecided voters like ‘children’, a source in the ‘Leave’ campaign fumbled the catch in a statement issued in direct response to the Treasury Report.
According to BBC Assistant Political Editor Norman Smith, the source said that they would not be publishing a counter-report that identified the benefits of leaving the EU, instead remarking somewhat flippantly:
‘Give us a government-funded department and then we’ll produce a report like the Chancellor’.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Unstable Overall as Commodity Prices Stage Recovery
The ‘Loonie’ (CAD) has been unstable overall today, having dropped slightly against the Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) and the New Zealand Dollar (CAD/NZD) but risen by 0.2% against the Australian Dollar (CAD/AUD) and by 0.8% against the US Dollar (CAD/USD).
The only major Canadian economic event that has been ongoing today has been the price of crude oil, which notably dived yesterday after the Doha meeting of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members failed to produce the desired outcome of an agreement to cut oil production.
Today, the price has been rising slightly on the WTI index and for Brent crude, but this has come even as Russia has voiced consideration for upping production and pumping out around 540 million tonnes of oil this year.
Future GBP, CAD Forecast: Poloz Speech due Shortly, BoE’s Carney’s Speech Ongoing
For Canada, the next economic announcement of note is due in the near-future, when Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz is due to testify to the Canadian House of Commons.
For the UK, comments from a central banker are currently ongoing with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney addressing the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on the general economic outlook held by the policymaker and his institution.
Looking further ahead, tomorrow morning will bring the UK jobless claims and earnings figures for March and February, as well as the unemployment rate result for February.
Current forecasts have been for a slight drop in claims and a rise in the number of employed, although neither outcome is expected to result in an actual change in the respective claimant count rate and unemployment rate. In a potential positive outcome for the BoE’s future policy decisions, a rise from 2.1% to 2.3% is expected for the average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to the end of February on the year.
Canadian data will consist of tomorrow’s February wholesale sales result, which is expected to decline from 0% to -0.4%.
Current GBP, CAD Exchange Rates
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.8251 and the Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.5484 today.
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