Weak German Business Climate Leaves Pound Sterling Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Muted
The Pound Sterling Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remained flat on Friday, leaving the pairing trading at around €1.1448.
The single currency remained under pressure after European Union leaders agreed a longer-term recovery fund is ‘needed and urgent’.
Leaders failed to agree on details, including how this would be funded which dampened Euro sentiment further.
Added to this, markets were also left disappointed after the first trial for a Covid-19 drug showed it had no effect and did not show any benefits.
Data from Germany also added to today’s gloom, as Ifo revealed business climate came in at a lower-than-expected 74.3 in April.
This was lower than the low of 80 seen over a decade ago during the Global Financial Crisis.
This weighed on the single currency and an Ifo economist noted that the German economy was in its toughest time since the German reunification.
British Retail Sales Suffer Record-Breaking Tumble
Sterling remained under pressure after this morning’s British retail sales statistics showed that sales plummeted in March.
Sales fell by the most on record last month despite a surge in food buying for the coronavirus pandemic lockdown.
However, this was dwarfed by the fall in sales for clothing and other goods, sending retail sales -5.1% lower compared to February.
This was the sharpest fall in sales since the Office for National Statistics (ONS) began recording the data in 1996.
Commenting on the data, Capital Economics’ economist, Thomas Pugh noted:
‘With widespread lockdowns only beginning around the middle of March, retail spending looks like it will fall by much more in April.
‘Clearly there is huge uncertainty as to how deep the downturn proves and how long restrictions remain in place, a fall in the region of 25% in GDP over the next few months seems likely.’
Pound (GBP) Flat as Consumer Confidence Remains at Decade-Low
Meanwhile, further data from GfK revealed that British consumer confidence remained at its lowest since 2009 in April.
Confidence had earlier slumped in late March after the coronavirus pandemic caused the country to go into lockdown. The crisis also set the country on track for a deep recession.
The confidence index held at -34, still down sharply from -9 earlier in March.
Commenting on Friday’s data, client strategy director at GfK, Joe Staton noted:
‘It is impossible to say if this is at the bottom after weeks of adjustment to the reality of lockdown life, or if further falls are to come.’
Pound Euro Outlook: French Unemployment Claims in Focus
Looking ahead to next week, the Euro (EUR) could suffer some losses against the Pound (GBP) following the release of French unemployment statistics.
If the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in France jumps higher than expected in March, it will weigh on the single currency.
Meanwhile, traders will be looking for an announcement of another meeting between European Union leaders.
If reports of a further meeting continue to highlight the disagreements between leaders, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will edge higher.
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