- Climbing ‘Remain’ Support Sees Further GBP/AUD exchange rate gains– Top economist and business leaders come out in support of remaining.
- Pound Sees Some of its Largest One Day Movements since Pre-2008 – Three cent surge vs. Buck, Aussie and Euro just the tip of the iceberg.
- Australian Dollar Boosted by Resurfacing Risk-on Attitudes – Lessening concerns for a ‘Brexit’ has seen risk aversion wane somewhat.
- Forecasting Uncertain as UK’s EU Referendum just Two Days Away – Currencies will swing in line with public opinion as the date draws ever nearer.
The Pound has experienced some miraculous single-day rallies thanks to a massive swing towards a pro-‘Remain’ outlook, with the GBP/AUD exchange rate jumping.
Yesterday saw Sterling track three cents higher against the ‘Aussie’ to reach a high of 1.9718 but rising global oil prices have possibly capped any more gains for the Pound.
Sterling’s meteoric rise has been due to many factors. One of the catalysts for the turn in GBP sentiment was the tragic and untimely assassination of Labour MP and humanitarian Jo Cox. Pro-EU sentiment was beginning to rise just before the regrettable events and suspended campaigning in the wake of them allowed ‘Remain’ to bubble up through the public consciousness.
A collection of business leaders and economist also became vocal supporters of the EU, urging the UK to vote to ‘Remain’.
Currently the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate sits at 1.9656 after suffering a small decline thanks to increasing global oil prices.
Pound (GBP) Sees Largest One Day Rallies against Select Majors, GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Jumps
Seeing an incredible increase across all the majors yesterday, the Pound truly did have an auspicious day.
Last week the polls were showing the ‘Leave’ campaign comfortably ahead of ‘Remain’, and then Thursday’s harrowing events occurred. 41 year old, mother of two Jo Cox was shot and stabbed in the street outside her West Yorkshire surgery and later died of her wounds. Her killer, Thomas Mair, espoused extremist far-right nationalist views during the crime as well as in front of the court. Analysts have posited undecided voters may be drawn towards voting ‘Remain’ in an effort to distance themselves from Mair’s actions and views.
‘Remain’ sentiment continued to stir as campaigns were suspended as a mark of respect to the late Jo Cox. The ‘Leave’ camp has certainly been the most audible so the respite has served in ‘Remain’s’ favour.
Other factors, such as business leaders from Jaguar, Land Rover, Vauxhall, Toyota and BMW now vocally supporting staying within the EU have lent their aid to the ‘Remain’ movement. A group of ten renowned Nobel Prize winning economists are also backing remaining within the EU.
Furthermore, historically undecided voters tend to stray towards maintaining the status quo as the voting date draws near and so far we seem to be following this trend somewhat.
Australian Dollar (AUD) Held Afloat as ‘Brexit’ Fears Relent
The Australian Dollar has seen some tough time since the slip in global commodity prices last year.
But relenting Brexit concerns and a jump in global oil prices have bolstered the Aussie Dollar significantly today, with the currency up 0.42% against the Canadian Dollar, 0.46% against the Euro, 0.60% against the US Dollar and 0.56% against the Yuan.
Brexit fears lifting somewhat have seen investors more comfortable with the risky ‘Aussie’ as risk-aversion trends settle within in the market. Prominent pop culture figures, including David Beckham, have also come out in favour of the UK staying in the EU, which has the potential to sway voters more than any cogent, well-articulated arguments by either campaigns.
GBP AUD Exchange Rate Forecasts Lie within Voter Sentiment with EU Referendum Approaching
The referendum is now only two days away.
As mentioned before, historically, referendums in the UK follow a trend where undecided voters tend to fall in line with the status quo as the date approaches so we may see even more of an increase in ‘Remain’ support in the coming days.
Ecostats aren’t extensive for either country but they would be rendered more-or-less irrelevant as the UK’s ‘Brexit’ referendum will be dominating the economic stage with little expectation of sharing the lime light with any other influencers. Nothing short of cataclysmically bad or exceedingly positive data should lend any movement to either markets.
Analysts and citizens of the UK alike will be looking closely to the coming days as it is sure both sides of the issue will ramp up campaigning, attempting to corral those final fence-sitters into seeing their view-point.
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