Indian Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast to move with Production Stats Ahead
At the close of last week the US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate was trading in the region of 61.6100 – up on the day’s opening levels in spite of a disappointing US non-farm payrolls report.
The Rupee had previously softened to a three-week low against the ‘Greenback’ as emerging market currencies bore the brunt of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Before the jobs report was published one local trader noted; ‘If the US data turns out to be as good as market expects it to be, then the Rupee could come under pressure in the coming sessions.’
Although the US economy failed to add the number of positions expected, the US unemployment rate did fall from 5.9% to 5.8%, reducing demand for the Rupee.
Next week the Indian reports most likely to cause Indian Rupee to US Dollar exchange rate movement are India’s trade balance and inflation rate reports, as well as the nation’s manufacturing and industrial production figures.
On Monday the Indian Rupee gained by the most in three weeks as demand for the US Dollar waned in response to Friday’s employment figures. As stated by forex analyst Anish Vyas; ‘Dollar weakness after the payroll data is getting reflected in Asian currencies, including the Rupee. The Rupee is also aided by the prospect of inflation coming down further on the back of easing crude prices’.
The INR/USD exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 0.0163
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate May Trend Lower after Wage Data
While the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate strengthened in the wake of the European Central Bank’s interest rate announcement (during which policy was left unaltered but a dovish attitude was adopted) the pairing later shed gains.
The GBP/EUR exchange rate struggled after Germany’s trade surplus widened and the UK’s trade deficit increased.
The news that the UK’s goods deficit widened to 9.8 billion Pounds in September saw economist Alan Clarke comment; ‘It is the lack of domestic demand in the Eurozone that means we struggle to increase our exports as much as our imports. This is probably because continental European consumers and businesses are demanding less of everything and there is not an awful lot that we can do about that apart from watch and wait for the Eurozone recovery to gain traction – or try to export more to elsewhere on the globe.’
The Pound consequently weakened against several of its currency counterparts.
In the week ahead the GBP/EUR exchange rate could fluctuate in response to the UK’s employment and wage report. If the pace of wage growth increased in the three months to September it would bolster the Pound. Alternately, sluggish earnings gains could cause Pound to Euro exchange rate losses.
The GBP/EUR exchange rate is trading in the region of 1.2724
US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast to Extend Gains this Week
While the US published a fairly mixed bag of reports over the course of the week, the US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate romped higher as the Pound came under domestic pressures.
Disappointing UK Services and Construction PMI’s, coupled with a neutral interest rate decision from the Bank of England, saw the Pound fall to a fourteen month low against the US Dollar over the course of the week. The US Dollar was also buoyed by impressive ADP employment change and initial jobless claims figures.
On Friday the US Dollar eased away from recent highs after the US was shown to have added fewer positions than forecast in October. As stated by strategist Steven Englander; ‘The number by any objective sense is not terrible – it maybe was a bit weaker that what was expected. What I think it suggests is that the desire to buy Dollars is so strong that there are enough people who didn’t participate in this rally as much as they wanted, that the pullback was viewed as a chance to get in there.’ However, the fact that the US unemployment rate dipped to 5.8% limited US Dollar declines.
In the view of economist Stephen Stanley; ‘The US economy’s not perfect, but it does seem to be operating much better than most of its peers.’ Whether or not this week’s data will support that inference remains to be seen.
Currently, bets that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates before the Bank of England is keeping the US Dollar to Pound Sterling exchange rate trending higher. If next week’s US reports, including Advance Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Confidence Index, support this argument the ‘Greenback’ will be boosted.
The US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate is trading in the region of 0.6290
Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Advances before ECB, BoE Reports
This week’s dovish policy statement from the European Central Bank saw the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate soften.
However, an impressive trade report from Germany gave the pairing a boost before the weekend.
The EUR/GBP exchange rate was little-effected by comments issued by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney during a speech in Paris on Friday. Carney reiterated earlier remarks when he stated that the central bank has ‘emphasized the likelihood of a limited and gradual path of normalisation.’
Next week October’s final Consumer Price Inflation figures for the Eurozone and Germany could impact the Euro if any revisions are made. Slower consumer price growth would be detrimental to the Euro.
The main Eurozone news to be aware of next week is the ECB’s monthly report – out on Thursday. Any additional details on the central bank’s plans to purchase government backed securities could be responsible for serious EUR/GBP fluctuations. Third quarter growth data for the currency bloc and its largest economies will also be worth noting.
At the end of the week the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trending in the region of 0.7858
On Monday the Euro was modestly boosted against several of its main rivals as the Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence gauge showed a modest improvement. In the view of James Boston; ‘Early indicators are pointing to a slight recovery in investor sentiment within the Eurozone. The Sentix Investor Confidence indicator just published remains deep in negative territory but the latest reading is showing some signs of improvement, the current month reading has been announced as -11.9, this represents a moderate improvement in perceived conditions when compared to last month’s year and a half low of -13.7, the consensus estimate was for a more gradual improvement to just -13.5 in these latest numbers.’
Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates
[table width=”100%” colwidth=”50|50|50|50|50″ colalign=”left|left|left|left|left”]
Currency, ,Currency,Rate ,
Pound Sterling,
,US Dollar,1.5873,
Pound Sterling,,Euro,1.2742,
Pound Sterling,,Australian Dollar,1.8369,
Pound Sterling,,New Zealand Dollar,2.0458,
US Dollar,,Pound Sterling,0.6300,
Euro,,Pound Sterling,0.7846,
Australian Dollar,,Pound Sterling,0.5436,
New Zealand Dollar,,Pound Sterling,0.4882,
[/table]
